Friends, don't be surprised that the low point of 2718 yesterday was broken again today, because the bottom is not a point, but an area.

After the market bottomed out and rebounded yesterday, it was quite astonishing to see some people already shouting that the bull market is coming!

After the market continued to fall, the golden needle bottomed out, which can be considered as a support area below, and it can be considered as an over-sold rebound, but to say that the bull market is coming, it's a bit too much!

Looking at today's market performance, the A-share market continues to show divergence, and there is no big Yang line after the lower shadow line, but the funds have started to shift their focus to the GEM, what signal does this release?

Before the market opened today, the Securities Times published an article strongly supporting the bottom area of the A-share market, comparing the historical bottom of the A-share market in the past 20 years, and giving a value judgment, will it usher in a turning point?

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Combining the market performance, let's talk about your own views: 1.

Before the market, the Securities Times published an article comparing the historical bottom, will A-shares usher in a turning point?

From the current market voice, we can see some changes.

Before the adjustment of the A-share market, there were not many discussions about the bottom, because people felt that the market was quite low and needed to continue adjusting.

As the index continued to accelerate and fall, approaching 2700 points, the discussion about the bottom began to increase, which at least proved that people began to gradually recognize this area.

Although there is no signal that the market has bottomed out, at least the market's concept has begun to change.

One of the necessary conditions for the formation of the bottom is also to recognize the value of the low position, which is the change in public opinion.

In addition, today, the mainstream financial media Securities Times published a deep article, talking about the comparison of the four major historical bottoms, what content does it have?

Looking at the content of the article, from the historical four major bottoms from June 2005 to now and the current comparison, from the perspective of valuation to compare the high and low of the current market.

In June 2005, the index was at 998 points, and the market P/E ratio was 16.88 times; in October 2008, the index was at 1664 points, and the market P/E ratio was 13.49 times; in 2013, the index was at 1849 points, and the market P/E ratio was 9.67 times; in January 2019, the index was at the low point of 2440 points, and the market P/E ratio was 11.08 times; comparing the four major historical bottoms in the past 20 years, it can be found that the intervals are 3 years, 5 years, and 6 years, respectively.

Now it is 2024, and it has been 5 years since the bottom in 2019.

If we look at the time cycle, by January 2025, it will be a complete 6 years, and the time cycle is long enough.

If it's fast, it may also be in line with the time cycle bottom.

Looking at the current A-share index at 2700 points, the P/E ratio of the two cities is about 12.19 times, and the P/B ratio is 1.13 times.

Compared with the historical figures, it is not very high.

So, simply from the perspective of valuation, although there are many individual stocks in the A-share market now, the overall valuation is not very high.

So the problem arises, the valuation is relatively low, and some have inflow through ETFs of hundreds of billions, and now the dividend level of the A-share market is increasing, and the repurchase strength is also increasing, and the policy is also tilting towards the capital market.

Why doesn't the money start to do more?

This is a question that everyone needs to think about collectively.

If we simply look at the technology and location, the A-share market is indeed not high now, but the trend of short selling and falling has not changed.

Today, the index once again reached a new low of 2717 points, although it fell a little bit every day after breaking the new low, and the decline is not large, but it gives people the feeling that there is a new low after the new low.

This pessimistic expectation has been circulating infinitely, and everyone cannot see hope for the future, which is the important force that hinders the market rebound.

In the past, we attributed the problems of the market to the speed of new shares IPO, the frequency of quantitative trading, the short selling mechanism such as margin trading, the fastest hedging mechanism such as stock index futures, and the reduction of major shareholders, etc.

; these mechanisms are actually the institutional problems of the A-share market itself, and these systems have not just appeared this year, they have always existed in the past few years, why have they been more affected in these two years?

This requires everyone to understand, the system may be just a superficial phenomenon, and the real reason behind it is more worrying.

Since this year, there have been some changes in the system reform, but the fact is that the index has fallen from 2900 points to 2700 points, which shows that the root has not been solved.

In the past, the market has experienced a bull market, and it has also experienced a cruel stock disaster, but in the end, everyone can regain the confidence to do more under the shadow of the stock disaster, forcing the short sellers to do more.

Why can't it be done now?

Is it just because of the system?

Or is it expectations and macro issues?

There are many factors to consider, and it depends on whether you will do it.

At least from the current market environment, it is not appropriate to simply use valuation and location to say that A-shares are at a historical bottom area and are about to usher in a turning point.

2.

The index and the GEM have diverged, one has not yet fallen through, and the other has basically bottomed out: There are still two good signals in today's market: one is that the Shencheng Index and the GEM turned red and rose; the other is that high dividend assets such as banks and oil continue to adjust; the index is still adjusting, and the GEM rose sharply at the opening today, which is a clear size divergence.

(1) Since September, the index has been continuously hitting new low stages, but the GEM has never broken through the low point in August, which indicates that one market has not yet adjusted, and the other market has begun to show a trend of resistance to falling.

It can also be considered that the GEM has fallen enough before, and the cycle of falling has been longer, and after the market style has switched, some funds have begun to shift to the GEM, which at least indicates that the bottom of the GEM has basically formed.

Therefore, for the GEM, the future trend is to do more and look up, and the style switch has been continuing since the end of August.

In September, the GEM has withstood the pessimistic mood of the market's general decline many times, and only when the GEM sees the bottom first can the market really see the bottom.

(2) The reason why the index has not yet fallen through is that high dividend assets such as banks and oil have not been adjusted sufficiently.

Yesterday, the funds pulled the bank at the opening to lure more, and as a result, the index fell to the lowest point of 2718 points; today, the bank sector continued to adjust, and the index fell to 2717 points.

Regardless of the rise and fall of banks, the index is now going down, which indicates that the form of pulling banks to lure more has not attracted funds to enter the market.

At this time, what the main funds need to do is to let high dividend assets such as banks, coal, electricity, and oil adjust sufficiently.

Only when these weights fall through can the index really bottom out.

Many people say that the index needs to bottom out and stabilize by pulling the bank sector to stabilize, which is a feature in the first half of this year.

After the bank sector fell from a high position, the dividend group broke up, which means that the market style has switched.

Today, the bottom new energy track rebounded sharply, driving the GEM index to rise, which has already shown that everyone's willingness to accept the bank's adjustment is not strong, and now they only do the rebound of the bottom oversold plate.

Although the short-term index does not stop falling, which makes people lack confidence, the dividend stock adjustment, in exchange for other themes to rotate and rebound, is at least a good thing for the market sentiment, and the weight adjustment to accelerate the bottom of the index is conducive to the early formation of the bottom.

3.

Will it break through 2700 points today?

According to the current downward trend of the index, everyone's confidence in the support at 2700 points is rapidly declining, but there is a data that everyone should know: since this year, the index has not closed below 2700 points, and the lowest point this year is 2635 points, which is the low point in the market, but the closing position that day is at 2702 points; that is to say, even in such a bad atmosphere at the beginning of the year, even if the support at 2700 points was broken during the market, it was still closed up.

For today, the weight adjustment, the index pressure is relatively large, but even if it is said that these two days broke through 2700 points during the market, the closing is likely to be closed up.

I personally think that today will not break through 2700 points, and the index may still have a certain rise in the afternoon, and the whole day will still close with a lower shadow line.

These days may be constantly trying the support with lower shadow lines.

Even if the next day cannot hold the low point of the lower shadow line, the intraday funds will also make a rise, which is a fund's attempt to the bottom area.