Friends, today is truly a day when global stock markets are on the rise, yet the A-share market has once again followed its familiar pattern; last night, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, and today's opening of the Asia-Pacific indices also saw a collective rebound, with the Nikkei 225, Taiwan Weighted Index, South Korea Index, and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index all rebounding by more than 1%; how is the A-share market performing?

Within half an hour of the opening, the three major indices turned red collectively, with more than 4,500 individual stocks rising in both markets, but this was only sustained for half an hour.

Subsequently, the broad market index began to dive and turn green, and the ChiNext Index also started to fall, continuing to maintain its independent trend.

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To summarize the current performance of the A-share market in four words: alarmingly weak.

From a temporal perspective, today's A-share market was already a day with significant selling pressure before the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, as many funds that need to hold cash before the holiday would choose to start selling today.

However, setting this factor aside, the ability to rebound from more than four thousand stocks rising to thousands of stocks falling is perhaps only achievable by the A-share market with its rapid change of face.

For the A-share market, what exactly is needed for it to rise?

Is the pressure really that great today?

Let's discuss some opinions: 1. Who is dragging down the A-share market today?

Looking at sector performance, the drag on the index from heavyweight stocks is quite evident, mainly concentrated in the insurance, securities, and liquor sectors.

Today, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai fell rapidly during trading, setting a new low since November 2022.

Looking back at Kweichow Moutai's stock price, it has been three years, and the price has been halved from a high of over 2,600 yuan to less than 1,400 yuan now.

What does Kweichow Moutai's stock price represent?

It was once the market value leader in the A-share market, the stock with the highest price, and also the stock with the most institutional holdings.

Now, it has been falling for more than three years.

This period reflects changes in the market's understanding of value investment, concerns about the disintegration of group stocks, and behind it, it reflects changes in the market's consumer ecosystem.

The liquor sector was once considered the "real technology" of the A-share market, so why can't the liquor sector rise now?

On the one hand, it is the change in the market's valuation system.

In the past, the liquor sector was grouped by institutions, and the valuation was generally given very high, even if the stock price rose sharply, everyone still thought it was not overvalued.

Now, even if the stock price has rebounded a lot, everyone still thinks the valuation is high; on the other hand, the market's expectations have changed.

This is mainly reflected in the performance of liquor companies.

In the past trend of consumption upgrading, everyone's demand for high-end products in liquor was relatively strong, and high-end first and second-tier liquors ushered in a period of explosive sales, with rapid growth in performance, and estimates were almost all over a hundred yuan; now, with the sluggish recovery of consumption and the obvious trend of consumption downgrading, coupled with a significant change in the group of liquor consumers, the sales expectations of high-end liquor have declined, and the performance is difficult to have a rapid increase in space, and the stock price is naturally difficult to rise.

If we use Fu Peng's recent words, the theory of saving money is making money, then consumer goods are the most easily reflected, and the most obvious is the downgrading of consumption, so this is not favorable for high-end liquor.

Looking at the sales expectations of the liquor industry during this Mid-Autumn Festival, there seems to be no obvious phenomenon of exceeding expectations, which is also an important reason for the new low in Moutai's stock price today.

When can the liquor sector rise again?

First, it depends on everyone's overall confidence in consumption to pick up, that is, from consumption downgrading to consumption recovery; second, the entire capital market has bottomed out, and once the stock market has bottomed out, it is accompanied by an overall increase in valuation; for the insurance sector, today's sector is considered to be a good news fulfillment and has started to make up for the fall.

Last night, the State Council issued a document, talking about the high-quality development of the insurance industry, but from the recent trend of the insurance sector, funds have been in advance to speculate.

Today, funds took advantage of the good news to leave the high position, which is quite in line with the recent speculative characteristics of the A-share market.

The current A-share market, good news has turned into bad news, bad news is regarded as a big bad news, the whole is a stage of continuously releasing panic and accelerating the bottoming out, and the market has not yet truly adjusted to the end.

2.

The global stock market is rising, and the A-share market is struggling, the key is to see if there will be a rebound after a sharp drop in the afternoon: Although today is the last trading day to cash out before the holiday, the market's selling pressure is relatively large, but the morning market has risen and fallen, indicating that some funds have started to pull up and leave.

If the market falls sharply again in the afternoon, it is very likely to bottom out and rebound again.

Recently, I have been continuously telling you a phenomenon, no matter how the overseas market rises and falls, the A-share market has completely stopped following, which means that everyone's expectations for the A-share market have really changed, which may have a greater impact than the short-selling system of the A-share market.

Looking at the performance of the 30-year government bond yield in the A-share market recently, you should be able to know what the market is worried about?

Therefore, some issues may not be changed by suspending IPOs, suspending short sales, etc., the key is that the concept of the capital market needs to be changed now.

The current A-share market is similar to the real estate sector.

Five years ago, many people were willing to leverage to buy houses, and at that time, they dared to overdraw consumption because they saw the wealth effect of appreciation; now, everyone's expectations for real estate may be that house prices will continue to fall, and they dare not overdraw consumption, and they may be trapped once they enter.

The stock market is also the same.

In the past, the stock market could rise and fall sharply, although there was also a short-selling system, but there were funds that dared to leverage to do more, and now there is no hope in the financial market, so there is no continuous incremental funds entering.

Are there still funds that dare to leverage or overdraw consumption to enter the stock market now?

Without this initiative, there is no financial effect growth in the stock market, and funds would rather go to the bottom of the Hong Kong stock market and chase the high U.S. stock market, and are not willing to flow into the A-share market, which is the core of the problem.

Therefore, for the short-term A-share market: (1) What can be determined now is that 2700 points are still struggling to resist.

In the morning, it can be seen that banks are trying to rebound and pull up, but the result is that the number of individual stocks rising immediately falls, indicating that the main funds still want to try to use banks to protect the plate.

If this idea continues to exist, then the broad market index may continue to bottom out; (2) Although the ChiNext has also fallen, the bottom is basically verified.

Recently, there has been a continuous flow of funds to the bottom of the CSI 1000 ETF, indicating that there is a continuous flow of funds into small and medium-sized innovation.

Even if it is a callback, the overall ChiNext is more resistant, and everyone's recognition of the bottom of the ChiNext is higher.

In general, the broad market may not easily break through 2700 points, but the trend will be more complex.

When will it break out of the current 2700-point predicament?

In addition to allowing the market to bottom out by itself, I think decisive measures are needed to make everyone see the hope of the future of A-shares.

Now, the space for the A-share index to fall is not much, mainly in the time, and everyone should not rush to bottom out and add positions.

If the funds before the holiday are not willing to launch the market, then the capital flow back after the holiday also needs a process.

Therefore, even if the market rises and rebounds in the afternoon and tomorrow, it is mostly a weak rebound before the holiday, and it is expected to continue to build the bottom after the holiday.