Friends, the A-share market is set to accelerate its bottoming process starting this week.
Why do I say that?
On one hand, looking at today's weak environment, there were no substantial positive news over the weekend, which is likely to accelerate the release of bearish sentiment.
On the other hand, the global market's risk appetite is declining.
The U.S. stock market plummeted on Friday night, and the Asia-Pacific markets collectively corrected.
The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets continued to adjust at the opening, and the global capital market is expected to enter a collective downtrend in the short term.
Finally, the market broke through the 2750 point level today, which was a key level that everyone had been paying attention to before, meaning that it is only a hundred points away from the previous 2635 point level.
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According to the current rhythm of the market correction, with an adjustment of twenty to thirty points per day, the fastest result could appear this week.
The faster the decline, the more likely there is to be a turning point.
In addition, looking at today's market performance, there are some unusual signals, what does it mean for the market?
Let's talk about my own views: 1.
The collective collapse of the stock group, what signal does it send?
Today, the market had a clear phenomenon.
Regardless of the traditional dividend stock group or the recently active speculative high-standard stock group, there was a collective collapse and correction.
What signal does this send?
On one hand, institutional stock groups represented by banks, coal, and oil have collectively fallen today.
On the other hand, speculative high-standard stock groups led by Huaqiang and Dazhong have collectively collapsed and hit the daily limit down today, triggering panic sentiment in short-term speculation.
For the short term, the collective correction of high-standard stocks is usually considered a sign of declining sentiment and often means one of the signals of the market accelerating to the bottom.
Why does the stock group speculate on high-standard stocks?
The main reason is that the market has no obvious main line and no sustained market, so funds collectively speculate on popular leading stocks in the short term.
At this time, it often indicates that the market has no core direction.
However, when these speculative targets begin to correct at high levels, it means that the market is undergoing a switch from high to low, and strong stocks begin to make up for the fall, which means that a new round of low-position stocks may start to make up for the rise.
In addition, banks and oil continued to adjust today, which puts a lot of pressure on the index.
However, when the index fell the most today, there were no more than four thousand stocks falling in the market, and there was no situation where more than five thousand stocks fell collectively.
This has again appeared in the previous signal, that is, when dividend stocks such as banks start to make up for the fall, the market stocks will have the opportunity to rise.
And one of the important signals for the market to bottom out is that banks and other heavyweights must fully correct and must fall thoroughly, and the market may really bottom out.
Now, looking at it, banks, coal, oil, electricity, etc., from the previous round of falling to the current collective fall, also means that the adjustment is more and more sufficient, which is a good thing for the market.
The more sufficient the adjustment of these plates, the greater the pressure the index may bear, but it is actually good for the reversal of individual stock sentiment.
2.
The battle to defend the 2700 point level of the market has begun, will there be funds to choose to act?
When 3000 points have become a thing of the past, and now everyone doesn't dare to expect too much for the 2800 point level, and even starts to prepare to accept the defense of the 2700 point level.
This is the characteristic of the A-share market.
Once you enter this market, the target requirements are constantly lowered, and in the end, you just hope not to blow up.
Looking at the opening of the two cities today, the market index has shown a clear gap in the low opening trend, leaving a large gap in the low opening.
This gap can be seen as a release of bearish sentiment.
According to the current trend of decline, if there are continuous large gaps downward, it is expected that the sentiment will reach a low point, and at that time, funds may start to act.
For the A-share market, will today's market bottom out?
Let's analyze a few points: First, this week will usher in the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, and the market trading sentiment in the last two trading days is expected to be relatively low, so the key is the attitude of funds in the first three days.
If the market can achieve accelerated decline and release panic sentiment in three days, then the probability of the market welcoming a weak rebound after the Mid-Autumn Festival will be relatively large.
Second, according to today's market performance, the market index is weaker than the GEM index, which indicates that the market style is still continuing to switch, and at this time, a structural market has already begun.
Funds are fleeing heavyweight and speculative stocks, and then choosing the GEM direction for risk aversion.
The market has not shown a resonance of falling resistance, so it is unlikely to see the bottom.
So, today, we can't say that the bottoming market has appeared.
Although it is believed that below 2750 points, funds will choose to resist, but it will not be achieved overnight.
Third, in the morning, the market index appeared at a low point of 2735 points, and the yellow line representing the theme stocks and the white line representing the heavyweight stocks were clearly divided.
It is expected that the market index may still have a situation of diving.
The reason is that the market was still shrinking in the morning.
If the market wants to see the bottom quickly, it must release the last wave of panic and cut the meat plate.
At this time, in fact, it is very difficult to fall in volume, because the long-term decline has led to a lot of funds to leave early, some also choose to lie flat and not move, and the panic and cut the meat of the chips are not much.
It is precisely because of this that before the last wave of panic and cut the meat plate appears, the bottom-fishing funds are unlikely to choose to enter the market easily, the purpose is to wait for the last batch of people who can't stand it.
Therefore, after the battle to defend the 2700 point level of the market has begun, everyone needs to pay attention to the changes in the amount of money in the next two days.
If there is a panic and a sharp decline in volume, it is easy to cause some funds to act.
Of course, the funds I said are the main funds that control the market, not the retail investors who are in a hurry to rush in, because even if the bottom has appeared at this time, the funds of retail investors are also very passive, and the bottom is never a point, but an area.
At present, this area has not yet appeared a clear lower limit, so there is no need to worry.
We can also assume that if it really breaks through the 2700 point level and starts to approach the 2635 point level, even if everyone does not speak, there will be people above who are more anxious than us.
Finally, do you still remember the statement about the reverse repurchase in July?
At the end of September, all the existing stocks will be cleared to zero, and then the reverse repurchase of the reverse repurchase will no longer be added, and then we can see the effect.
For the remaining reverse repurchase certificates in the market, the later it is, the more it is time to accelerate the settlement.
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