Bitcoin Soars to $64k After Fed's 50bps Hike; Turbulence Ahead

Cryptocurrency traders view the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut as a signal to continue taking risks, as Bitcoin (BTC) bulls sprinted past the bearish resistance line at $62,000 and $63,000, now seeking to turn $64,000 into support.

Alex Kupcsikevich, Senior Market Analyst at FxPro, noted: "The cryptocurrency market steadily rose by 3% to reach $2.18 trillion, with momentum further strengthened after the Federal Reserve's decisive rate cut."

"Following the Fed's decision, which helped cryptocurrencies reach new highs over the past three weeks, market risk appetite has increased.

Since mid-March, the cryptocurrency market has been moving within a downward corridor, and only surpassing the recent peak of $2.25 trillion can change this trend."

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He added: "Bitcoin has reached the [$6.3K] level.

This is an impressive [20%] increase since the low in early September, but only an 8% rise in 7 days, and less than +2% in 30 days."

"Since March, the downtrend has been present, with the previous peak around $64,000, roughly coinciding with the 200-day moving average.

We believe Bitcoin may encounter significant resistance at this level, and overcoming it will clear the path for an upward move."

As for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Ethereum (ETH), Kupcsikevich said it "shows a promising rebound from the 200-week average, ending the week in positive territory.

From the current level above $2,400, it is unlikely to encounter significant resistance until it approaches the 50-week average near $2,800."

Moreover, it's not just cryptocurrencies that are trending upwards, as stocks performed well in early trading, and spot gold briefly spiked to $2,595 per ounce, less than $5 below the new high set yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the rate cut.

However, it has not been smooth sailing, as the period after the rate cut is filled with volatility and turmoil.

Yongjin Kim, CEO of Flipster, said: "Overnight price movements indicate that the market is divided on the full impact of the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut."

"In Powell's briefing, almost all asset classes showed volatile risk, with bonds, yen, gold, small-cap stocks, and Bitcoin initially showing volatility, but then reversing within minutes."

He noted: "In recent weeks, the idea that a 50 basis point rate cut is a 'crisis management measure' signaling a potential economic recession has become increasingly popular, although empirical evidence remains inconclusive."

"In fact, the Fed's actions are a reaction to underlying economic changes, without direct causality."

Kim said: "Whether a 50 basis point rate cut will lead to net inflation (i.e., positive asset prices) depends on the current pace of economic growth slowdown."

"From last night's market chaos, growth concerns are clearly present, and the market needs to break free from this to rebound.

We are now firmly in the territory of 'good news is good news.'"

This "good news" indeed excited traders, as various assets hit record highs after the rate cut announcement, but whether the boost in sentiment will continue or fade after the initial excitement remains to be seen.

David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation, said: "U.S. stock index futures soared overnight, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hitting record highs."

"These moves were taken after yesterday's roller coaster meeting."

He pointed out: "As the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut, stocks soared, marking the largest one-time rate cut since the 2008 financial crisis."

"Then prices sharply reversed, plummeted into negative territory, and then rebounded slightly, closing with a small loss."

Morrison said: "There was a lot of uncertainty before the announcement about whether the Fed would cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points.

So, it's clear that whatever decision was made, the market would swing wildly as investors adapted to the new reality."

"The Federal Open Market Committee's 'dot plot' shows that most participants expect another 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, and another 100 basis points in the next year, and another 50 basis points by 2026.

If so, this would bring the federal funds rate to a range of 2.75-3.00%."

He emphasized: "Interestingly, the CME's FedWatch tool shows that market participants are betting on a further 75 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, so there is still a divergence of opinion."

"The Fed's statement said: 'The Committee has greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2% and believes that the risks to employment and inflation targets are roughly balanced.'

At the subsequent press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell seemed more relaxed than previous events."

Morrison emphasized that the rate cut "boosted all risk assets this morning, and the market sentiment is currently very optimistic," then pointing out "considering the potential strength of the U.S. economy, some will ask why a 50 basis point rate cut is necessary at this time."

He said: "Although the unemployment rate has risen over the past 12 months, part of the reason is that as the economy improves, there are now more people actively looking for work."

"On the other hand, the recent non-farm employment data has been disappointing, adding some uncertainty to the recent economic growth data.

It will be interesting to see if this morning's rebound will continue into the main session, or whether it will start to fade into the weekend.

Market sentiment is fickle, as we have just seen, and the market can turn sharply."

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $62,961, up 5.65% on the 24-hour chart.

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