Recently, the Chinese yuan has experienced a significant appreciation, primarily influenced by the weakening of the US dollar.
As the world's major reserve currency, fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate have significant impacts on other currencies.
Since July, the dollar has been impacted by multiple factors, including poor second-quarter reports from US stocks, poor performance in the US non-farm employment data for July, and the unexpected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, all of which have contributed to the dollar's decline.
Concurrently, China's internal environment has also supported the appreciation of the yuan; for instance, the convening of the Third Plenum has helped to reduce long-term risks in the economic transition process, alleviating the pressure of short-term deceleration in the yuan's exchange rate.
The appreciation of the yuan's exchange rate has multiple impacts on China's economy.
Advertisement
On one hand, a moderate devaluation is beneficial for enhancing the competitiveness and price advantage of export trade, promoting the recovery of the real economy; on the other hand, appreciation may increase the costs for import enterprises.
Additionally, the yuan's exchange rate fluctuations are also affected by China's trade surplus and the balance of settlement and sale of foreign exchange, as well as changes in market expectations for yuan appreciation.
It is anticipated that economic growth in most regions will slow down in 2024, but with the easing of restrictive monetary policies and the strengthening of global trade, growth in most areas is expected to intensify.
At the same time, the global economy faces downside risks such as geopolitical tensions, increased trade fragmentation, and tighter global financial conditions than expected.
In the 2024 US presidential election, Trump's economic policies, centered on tax cuts, stimulated economic growth in the short term but also increased the fiscal deficit, posing a challenge to the long-term stability of the dollar.
Trump's trade policies, especially the trade war with China, have also impacted the international status of the dollar.
Harris's proposed economic policies focus more on social welfare and wealth redistribution.
Her policies include providing assistance for down payments on home purchases and tax relief, as well as accelerating drug price negotiations, which may increase government spending and thus affect the supply and value of the dollar.
The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to take interest rate cuts at its September meeting, and this expectation has already caused ripples in the global financial markets.
Is interest rate reduction really a panacea for economic problems?
The market's expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has driven a rebound in the stock market and an increase in the prices of precious metals.
Interest rate cuts are seen as a strong stimulant for economic growth, but they may also trigger concerns about inflation.
The expectation of interest rate cuts has already accelerated the depreciation of the dollar, which may further affect the global trade and investment landscape.
As the BRICS Summit approaches, it seems that a turning point in the global economic landscape is quietly approaching.
In Kazan, Russia, a grand event that could reshape the world economic order is about to begin.
This is not only the first summit after the expansion of the BRICS countries but also a symbol of the collective rise of emerging economies in the global economic power balance.
The BRICS countries, once questioned by the Western world, are now an indisputable new engine of the global economy with a contribution rate of over 50% to world economic growth.
Their economic size now accounts for nearly one-third of the global GDP, and this proportion is still rising.
Under the shadow of the dollar's hegemony, the BRICS countries are gradually becoming an important force in promoting the reform of the international financial system.
The hegemonic status of the dollar is not unshakable.
With the introduction of the BRICS payment system, a new settlement era not dependent on the dollar is about to begin.
This is a direct challenge to the dollar's dominant position and a clear signal that the BRICS countries are seeking a greater say in global affairs.
The trend of dollar depreciation has emerged, and the collective actions of the BRICS countries may accelerate this process.
The BRICS countries are rising at an unprecedented rate, becoming a new engine for driving world economic growth.
With the addition of countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Ethiopia, the global influence of the BRICS countries is further expanding, and their share in the global GDP is continuously increasing, with an expected increase to 36.6% by 2028, while the share of the G7 is declining.
This shift not only signifies a redistribution of global economic power but also indicates that the BRICS countries will play a more important role in global economic governance.
The economic growth story of the BRICS countries is diverse.
As the rotating chair country in 2024, Russia is promoting cooperation among BRICS countries in fields such as energy, agriculture, and technology to promote the common development of member countries.
At the same time, the BRICS countries are also actively promoting the digital economy and green development, providing new growth points for the global economy.
The BRICS payment system introduced by the BRICS countries is a direct challenge to the dominant position of the dollar.
This payment system allows member countries to conduct bilateral settlements without using the dollar, which helps to reduce dependence on the dollar and promote the diversification and stability of the global financial system.
Economic cooperation among the BRICS countries is promoting the development of emerging markets and may reshape the global economic order.
As cooperation among the BRICS countries in fields such as technology, energy, and agriculture continues to deepen, the status and influence of emerging market countries in the global economy are also continuously increasing.
In the face of possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the BRICS countries are strengthening industrial cooperation and financial promotion to strengthen their own economic foundations and the ability to resist external shocks.
The expanded BRICS cooperation mechanism will strengthen the industrial cooperation foundation of emerging economies, optimize the layout of industrial chains and supply chains, enhance the complementarity of national endowments, and deepen industrial innovation cooperation.
post your comment