At the beginning of August, due to the Bank of Japan's announcement of an interest rate hike, US stocks fell into concerns of an economic recession, leading to a collective plunge in the Japanese and US stock markets, which in turn caused a global market to follow suit with a sharp decline.

This scene has just passed less than a month ago; now at the beginning of September, expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have emerged again, and concerns about a recession in the US economy have resurfaced, causing global stock markets to once again face a collective downward adjustment today.

This scenario seems familiar.

The global capital market is currently in a state of panic, with emotions being extremely fragile.

However, is it really necessary for the A-share market to follow suit?

Absolutely not!

When the global market was rising, A-shares were in an independent trend, and when the global market fell, A-shares were linked to global sentiment.

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Is it the same this time?

Let's discuss my own views: 1.

As the global stock market falls again, does it have a significant impact on A-shares?

When analyzing the trend of the A-share market, there are basically two states.

If it is found that the external market has risen sharply, almost everyone does not believe that A-shares will also rise sharply.

If it is found that the global market has fallen collectively, almost everyone believes that A-shares cannot withstand the pressure.

Although everyone will say that others have been rising for several years, and A-shares also need to adjust when they fall back?

What is the reason for this?

Sometimes the rise and fall do not actually need a reason because A-shares are not a market that normally makes sense.

Just like the current market environment, why do markets such as US stocks and Japanese stocks fall and adjust?

There are factors such as interest rate hikes, as well as US economic data that does not meet expectations, concerns about economic recession, and more.

There are also high-positioned stocks with funds taking profits and choosing to leave, so it is inevitable that major indices will face pressure.

What about the A-share market?

Is the impact significant?

It has always been at the bottom, oscillating and lingering.

Today, the index was affected by sentiment and opened low, and the index once again hit a new low for this stage.

There are very few profit-taking positions in the market now, how much space can there be compared to the outside world?

We don't need to pay too much attention to the sharp decline in overseas markets.

Although a sharp decline overseas does have an impact on A-shares sentiment, the impact is only superficial.

The essence is that A-shares have not fallen through, have not adjusted sufficiently, and there is no capital daring to enter the market to pick up the bottom.

Thinking from another angle, I think that if the global market continues to adjust in the near future, it will actually accelerate the A-share market to reach the bottom as soon as possible.

There are three aspects to this: First, for the A-share market itself, it is at the bottom, and the turnover is also shrinking.

Even if the stock market is worse, there are no panic positions left, and they have already been released, and the impact of panic sentiment is limited.

Second, the high position is not easy to bear, and the stock markets of Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region will not always maintain a strong position at a high level.

The last sharp decline was a false fall, but the number of false falls increases, and funds will gradually leave, which is actually beneficial to the A-share market.

Third, looking at the A-share market today, after the major indices opened low and maintained a narrow range of oscillation, it has already shown that the impact is only at the opening, not the trend of the whole day.

After the index opened low and released worries, there were funds in the market that chose to lift, which shows that there is still hope for the current market to do more at a low level.

Finally, looking at the environment, this overseas sharp decline is not quite the same as last time, because it is a second concern about the impact of economic recession.

As more and more data is verified, the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September will speed up.

A-shares hope that the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates as soon as possible, which is also beneficial to the central bank releasing new incremental policies.

Recently, there have also been domestic news that the interest rates of existing housing loans are expected to be transferred to mortgages, and the expectation of domestic interest rate cuts has also begun to be created, but in fact, it is still waiting for the Federal Reserve to take action as soon as possible.

Therefore, the global decline can be ignored for A-shares, and now everyone just needs to wait for the adjustment of the bank and other heavyweight sectors to end.

The funds that were holding together in the bank have been pulling up before, and not many funds dare to chase the rise.

If the rise and delivery are not smooth, will they still wait at a high position?

No, they will not.

If they can't wait, they will directly release the volume at a high position and deliver the goods.

When the market appears to have some bad news again, and the sentiment itself is relatively weak, the funds will directly leave the market and make a clear transfer and switch.

The funds in the bank leave the market and switch as soon as possible, which is actually a good thing for the market.

After falling and adjusting, it can still rise individual stocks, and then when it rebounds, it can also stabilize the index at a critical moment.

This is the real situation of A-shares now.

2.

The global market is in a state of panic, how will A-shares go today?

Now many people are not confident in A-shares, but I don't think so: First, the market style switch has been going on, no matter whether everyone is willing to enter the market, but the style switch will not stop.

The index is now the previous GEM, and funds are now slowly focusing on the small and medium-sized innovation board, which is the important reason for the recent rebound or resistance to the fall of the GEM.

Once the style switch is confirmed, it corresponds to the funds behind the layout, and the first to lay out at the bottom is definitely the main funds in the market.

The follow-up funds that are waiting outside the market will not easily enter the market.

Those follow-up funds will choose to enter the market when the rebound is clear, but that time is when the chips are more dispersed, and it is also the time when the game is more difficult.

The main funds often have lower chip prices, the reason is that the switch rhythm is fast enough, the target is clear enough, and coupled with the advantage of the original funds, the control of the market rhythm is very simple.

This is something that retail funds cannot compare with, but for retail investors, it is already very good to be able to do not blindly chase the rise and cut the meat, at least not to be confused by the high-level illusion, and also not to leave the market in panic at the bottom.

Second, the advantage of A-shares compared to the global market is also obvious.

The overall position is low enough, and now the index has broken through 2800 points, and the distance from the low point at the beginning of this year is only a hundred points, how much space will there be going down?

My view is that the low point of 2635 points this year is not so easy to break through, because that point represents a starting point.

In this way, the market has actually started to approach the bottom area, and now it is just waiting for the right time.

Although there will still be "black swan" attacks now, A-shares are in a value trough, and those funds will not flow into the A-share market.

Just like today's global stock market adjustment, the renminbi exchange rate is appreciating, waiting for the US dollar index to further weaken, and the US stock market recession continues to play, funds will inevitably withdraw and transfer to the low-position market, and the value of A-shares will be reflected.

Finally, it may be difficult for A-shares to turn over and rise sharply today, but today the GEM took the lead in turning red, which is a good sign: (1) The GEM can turn red, which verifies that the market is not afraid of falling, continues the switch, and the opportunity for individual stocks to rebound increases; (2) Although the index broke through 2800 points, it will still fluctuate in the short term, so a sharp decline is not likely to occur, at least the panic positions have been released almost; (3) The GEM in the afternoon may continue to rise, because today's pharmaceutical and new energy and other two major weights have rebounded, which is obviously driving the GEM index.

The number of individual stocks rising today will also increase, and the market sentiment will gradually ease, which does not affect the overall bottom-building rhythm of the A-share market.

The GEM closed up today, and the index can close above 2800 points, today's A-shares have achieved the expectation.

In general, the view for September remains unchanged, September is an important month for the index to build the bottom and switch the market style, and I have confidence in the individual stocks that have been oversold this month, all of which are preparing for the interest rate cut.