Friends, today's market has once again presented a familiar scene: the insurance sector is leading the gains, and banks have also started to rebound, but the major A-share indices have begun to experience a downward adjustment.

Seeing this, everyone should be reminded of the market's endgame, with individual stocks largely falling once again.

A-shares have repeatedly demonstrated with actual actions that as long as the market rises with index components like banks, insurance, and utilities, funds will resolutely choose to sell and exit, just going against the grain.

This also confirms that banks and other heavyweights are the "blood suckers" in the market; when these sectors rise, other thematic stocks will generally bleed and fall, and only when these high dividend stocks pull back will other stocks have a chance to rebound.

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Regarding the rebound at the end of August in A-shares, the market itself lacked confidence in it, considering it more of a "last gasp"; after all, the end-of-month rebound effect has occurred before, and this time it might also be a rebound trap.

However, the market's continued adjustment today may intensify these thoughts, leading more funds to be cautious and slowing the recovery of market confidence.

Nevertheless, the real reason for the market's adjustment is something else: 1.

Today's adjustment in the A-share market was already indicated by data over the weekend that would affect sentiment: the market has causes and effects; if the factors change, the results will naturally adjust accordingly.

Last Friday's market rebound and rise should have been noticed by these news factors: first, there was news about the potential adjustment of interest rates on the 38 trillion yuan of outstanding mortgages (this rumor was not confirmed over the weekend, and in fact, expectations were not met).

Second, the manufacturing PMI data for August released over the weekend was lower than expected (this directly reflects that the economic recovery is not as strong as expected, which has a significant impact on stock market confidence).

Looking at these two most closely watched news factors over the weekend, it's as if all expectations have been dashed, which has a considerable impact on the rebound itself.

Last Friday's rapid rise in real estate and the significant fall in banks (the adjustment of outstanding mortgage interest rates is considered bearish news for banks), today banks have started to rebound, mainly because there is no follow-up on the rumor about outstanding mortgages, so sentiment has rebounded somewhat.

In fact, looking at the central bank's second-quarter holdings in banks, after increasing its holdings in the four major banks at the end of 2023, the holding ratio in the first half of this year did not change significantly, indicating a wait-and-see approach.

So, which funds drove the surge in the banking sector in the first half of the year?

More likely, it was driven by public funds.

The high-level pullback of the banking sector at the end of August could also be due to some fund institutions adjusting their positions halfway through the year or cashing out at high levels.

Therefore, for the current A-share market, on the one hand, the initial expectations of the rebound are unstable, and any slight change can easily lead to funds cashing out, putting pressure on the market.

On the other hand, everyone is still paying close attention to the recovery data.

The stock market's failure to rebound is due to a lack of confidence, as well as the constant selling pressure from institutions.

2.

Old tricks re-emerge, with main funds pulling banks and insurance to cover their exits, with a significant outflow of domestic funds.

Is the rebound still there?

Whenever main funds pull banks, insurance, utilities, and coal, which are heavyweights, retail investors are generally losing money because these sectors are highly controlled.

Main funds spend a lot of money to make these constituent stocks rise, so thematic stocks are destined to be generally adjusted.

Moreover, after the continuous rebound of individual stocks in the second half of last week, today the main funds are eager to pull up banks and insurance sectors, obviously to cover the exit of individual stock themes.

From the significant outflow of several tens of billions of domestic funds this morning, it is clear that some funds are also taking advantage of the brief rebound to leave.

Does the departure of these funds mean that the rebound is over?

I don't think we can so decisively believe that the rebound has ended.

(1) First, after a rebound, there is an adjustment.

Many people see this trick and naturally think of the rebound trap in the past.

Currently, the trend is like this, but further observation is needed, especially the change in transaction volume.

If the collective market's fluctuation and consolidation maintain a transaction volume of around 800 billion, it still belongs to the bottom range of fluctuations.

(2) Secondly, as mentioned earlier, the rebound in September will not be smooth sailing.

On one hand, the news and data over the weekend are quite average, affecting the rebound rhythm.

On the other hand, it is unrealistic to continue rebounding before the Fed's interest rate cut has truly landed.

Therefore, September is a bottom-building stage.

What is the characteristic of bottom-building?

The bottom fluctuates up and down repeatedly, not obviously rebounding, but also not unilaterally continuing to fall.

It is an important stage for bottom washing.

(3) Regarding whether the rebound has ended: First, it depends on how quickly the volume shrinks.

If it shrinks rapidly, it will be difficult to rebound again.

If the volume is stable, it is still possible to rebound after adjustment as long as the transaction volume is there.

Second, even though insurance and banks were pulled up today, it is clear that it is still difficult for banks to return to the previous strong high point.

The banking sector, including the high-level chips after last week's adjustment, has loosened.

The sector may rebound symbolically, but there may still be selling pressure afterward.

The current hesitant trend of banks is more like a high-level trap to lure people to take over the plate, and investors should still be careful not to chase in lightly.

Third, although individual stocks fell more and rose less today, the adjustment of the CSI 2000 index was not obvious today.

The CSI 2000 represents the profitability of most individual stocks in the market.

As long as there is no sharp fall, the bearing capacity is still acceptable.

In addition, the GEM fell more today, mainly due to the Ning combination index, and the large-cap stocks of the GEM and SZSE fell more, which had a greater impact on the index.

Apart from the GEM weight falling more, there were only about one or two stocks that hit the limit down in the morning of the two cities, indicating that the small-cap stocks of the GEM are relatively resistant to falls.

Therefore, for the next market, I think there is no need to be too pessimistic.

First, you have to understand that you can't always rebound to the reversal step.

Now, a slight rebound will have a certain selling pressure, and you need to constantly test and digest the pressure.

Second, even if A-shares adjust again, the lower limit will basically be determined, and it will not continue to fall unilaterally because the mid-term performance has landed, and the interest rate cut is coming soon.

In the second half of the year, there may be policy expectations to exert force, and at this time, everyone still hopes to wait for some good news, so they also want to exchange more time for bottom fluctuations.

For investor friends, there is no need to panic because the rebound has been adjusted for a few days.

In fact, those who have laid flat don't care anymore, and those who hesitated last week won't have invested all in, and then look at the present with a longer cycle.

At least now is a bottom area.

It can also be clearly said that the real rebound of A-shares has not yet appeared, and now is definitely not the time to talk about the end.