Just moments ago, the much-anticipated U.S. August CPI data has been released, becoming the focal point of global investors tonight, as it could be the last significant economic data before the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.

According to the latest news: The U.S. August CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline, with an estimated increase of 2.5%, and a previous value of 2.9%; the U.S. August CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with an estimated increase of 0.2%, and a previous value of 0.2%.

The core U.S. CPI in August rose by 3.2% year-on-year, with the market estimating an increase of 3.2%.

What can everyone deduce from these figures?

The year-on-year increase in the U.S. August CPI is in line with estimates and has been continuously declining, which is not a significant issue and aligns with previous market judgments.

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The key point is that the month-on-month CPI has risen, and the core CPI data remains above 3%, making this data not particularly favorable for the capital market.

After the data was released, traders reduced their bets on a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

What information can be gleaned from this?

First, inflation is indeed slowing down, but not as quickly as imagined; second, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, with a focus on a 25 basis point reduction, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is further declining, so the market is no longer holding out hope for an unexpected significant rate cut; third, looking at the performance of the capital market after the data release, the U.S. dollar index has seen a rapid rise, and the A50 index futures experienced a quick dip, but then quickly rebounded; this indicates that the capital market's expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve have also been dashed, which is actually a small bearish news for the A-share market and other stock markets that wish to rely on a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

However, I believe the market can still accept this outcome, as the slowdown in inflation is a fact, and rate cuts are also a fact, but it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will make a significant rate cut, because doing so would be tantamount to admitting that there is a problem with the economy, which does not align with the characteristics of the Federal Reserve.

How significant is the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on the A-share market?

1.

From the perspective of the capital market, if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, it implies that the U.S. dollar index will start to weaken, corresponding to an implicit appreciation of the renminbi, which logically helps capital to flow back; additionally, from a capital perspective, if dollar-denominated assets depreciate, then capital will choose to allocate to other assets, and the asset allocation opportunities brought about by the appreciation of the renminbi will also increase.

However, this is just from the logic of the capital market; in reality, the Federal Reserve is cautious and may not operate entirely according to everyone's expectations; 2.

From the perspective of the central bank, there is actually room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in China, but there has been no action, also in order to observe the state of overseas markets.

Some time ago, the central bank indicated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts, but it is cautious about the idea of interest rate cuts, so reserve requirement ratio cuts may come faster than interest rate cuts.

In this case, it is better to focus on the strength and pace of the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cuts rather than on whether the Federal Reserve will speed up rate cuts and by how much; 3.

From the perspective of the stock market, how significant is the impact on the A-share market?

For the U.S. stock market, whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates or not, the U.S. stock market will rise, as global market hot money has high expectations for the U.S. stock market.

The key is that this leveraged capital will always believe that the investment return rate of the U.S. stock market is very high, so it may not care much about how the rate cut goes.

In contrast, the A-share market has essentially decoupled from the U.S. stock market.

In the past, when the U.S. stock market soared, the A-share market might also follow suit, and when the U.S. stock market plummeted, it would also be adjusted in tandem.

However, this year has seen significant changes, and whether the U.S. stock market rises or falls, the confidence and capital of the A-share market have not been bullish, reflecting a lack of expectations.

In this case, the impact of the Federal Reserve's statements and rate cuts on the A-share market is relatively limited, as the two markets have deviated, and everyone can almost ignore the Federal Reserve's rate cut events.

Next, let's talk about the two major news items after the market today: First, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) speaks, concerning the mergers and acquisitions and restructuring of the capital market; the CSRC's statement has released the key direction of the stock market, which is mergers and acquisitions and restructuring, as the current mergers and acquisitions and restructuring have entered an "active period".

From China Shipbuilding to the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, to the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions and restructuring by state-owned enterprises, what signals are being released?

First, the next theme direction of the A-share market is mergers and acquisitions and restructuring, which is quite a test for the green channel.

This means that those speculative capital or institutions that rely on their ability to obtain merger and acquisition and restructuring news in advance may start to speculate on expectations again; secondly, for the A-share market, mergers and acquisitions and restructuring may be a more acceptable outcome.

Because there are more than five thousand stocks in the two markets, and the fate of a large number of companies may ultimately be delisting.

If all companies are delisted, it does not conform to the actual situation.

The best outcome may be to be absorbed and merged; in addition, the pace of IPOs has also slowed down, so what should those companies in the same industry that want to go public do?

It does not conform to the actual situation to let those companies all go public and finance, and it may be possible to allow some unlisted companies to merge into listed companies in the same industry, which is also a way to digest IPOs; finally, a more critical point is to grow and strengthen.

Now, the competition within each industry is quite severe, and it is impossible to grow and strengthen by relying on the competition between companies within the industry.

The best way may be to merge and restructure to strengthen.

In general, today's statement is equivalent to pointing out the direction for the market to follow, but from the perspective of channels, this kind of restructuring expectation is still more advantageous for speculative capital and institutions, and individual investors' timeliness of information is relatively limited, at most they can only be a follower.

2.

The State Council issues a document, and the insurance industry is about to usher in high-quality development: The State Council's document mainly reflects three aspects of content: one aspect is the supervision of the insurance industry to prevent the occurrence of risks in the insurance industry; on the other hand, it hopes that insurance funds will play a long-term advantage and increase investment in the market (the scale and investment characteristics of insurance funds can maximize the stability of the market, so the next insurance funds may be an important incremental fund).

Finally, the high-quality development of the insurance industry is a good news for the current insurance sector.

Since mid-August, the insurance sector has started to rebound against the trend and strengthen, and it is obvious that there are funds that have entered the market in advance, and now the policy has been implemented, although it is a good news for the industry as a whole, it is also necessary to pay attention to the risk of short-term good news being realized.

If there are no friends who have taken the initiative, for the insurance sector, it is better to wait and see, in case of short-term high-level good news being realized, it is best to wait for the opportunity to adjust back; 3.

How to look at the A-share market on Thursday?

It may be a more complicated day: First, the A-share market continues to shrink, and after the low volume, the low price is seen, but the formation of the bottom must also have a moderate increase in volume, and now it is still continuing to shrink, so it is very likely that Thursday will continue to find the bottom; secondly, the bottom signal of the GEM is very strong now, and it is more resistant to the decline compared to the overall index, so the next funds will be the first to pay attention to the GEM index, and the size of the divergence may continue tomorrow; finally, Thursday is the last trading day for short-term funds to cash out before the holiday, which is only for short-term funds to cash out before the holiday, will the pressure to sell be large?

Speaking from another angle, the index has already reached around 2700 points, will there really be so many funds to cut their losses and leave?

Therefore, the market sentiment tomorrow must be quite complicated, and the funds may also be quite entangled.

But for me personally: even if the short-term index breaks through 2700 points, the probability of a quick recovery is also relatively large, because the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next week, and the balance of the reverse repo will be settled at the end of the month, and now the overall price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio of the A-share market have also reached the bottom level of history; although the bottom signal is not clear, the recognition of the bottom of the GEM is increasing, and the overall index is not expected to wait too long, at this time, it is necessary to suppress the content of fear, and wait for the bottom signal to appear as the main goal.